Blockbuster Miscalulated

Blockbuster (BBI) is a perfect example of what can go wrong when you misread the industry trends and then realizing it, try desperately to catch up. In the period from late 2001 to 2002, Blockbuster was the leader in the video rental business. Its shares were trading at nearly $30 a share and its market-cap was at around $5.75 billion.

But there was a trend developing towards movie rentals via the Internet. Blockbuster failed to recognize the growing significance of Internet video rentals, a very poor miscalculation on its part. The shares have steadily declined to the current $3.80 to $4.20 channel. Once a large-cap, Blockbuster is now a small-cap and struggling to regain any sense of direction. The company has entered into the Internet DVD rental business but it has a lot of catching up to do.

Fundamentally, Blockbuster has lost money in the last three straight quarters and struggling to grow its revenues, which are forecasted to increase a mere 1.1% in fiscal 2006. Its estimated five-year earnings growth rate is a mere 2.5% per year, which is pitiful.

Blockbuster also has to deal with its massive debt load of $1.27 billion or a debt-to-equity of 2.73:1, which suggests a weak balance sheet. Couple this with poor working capital and you understand the high financial risk. Faced with stagnant revenue growth and losses, Blockbuster faces a difficult upside battle to regain its lost glory. The odds are stacked against it.

In the face of Blockbuster is online DVD rental company Netflix (NFLX), which debuted in May 200, trading at close to $40 in 2004 before sinking to the $10 level in 2005 before the rally.

Netflix saw the future for DVD rentals and it was online and not via the “brick and mortal” route that Blockbuster decided to maintain. In direct opposite to Blockbuster, Netflix is profitable and has been for the last three straight quarters. It has 4.2 million subscribers and growing. Its revenues are growing and expected to surge 32.5% in fiscal 2007 whereas Blockbuster is seeing non-existent revenue growth.

Blockbuster has entered into the online DVD rental arena but it is well behind Netflix. Moreover, Netflix also operates the online DVD rental business for Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), after the retail giant decided to shut down its own online DVD rental unit and instead let Netflix run it.

Trading at 36.73x its estimated FY06 EPS, Netflix is not cheap. But if it can continue its strong growth and earn the estimated $1.11 per share for the FY07, the valuation becomes more reasonable. The pressure is clearly on Netflix to deliver but it is on the correct path.

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George Leong is the founder of Investornomics.com (http://www.investornomics.com) - a provider of independent stock and option trading commentary. He has a degree in finance/economics and offers over 15 years of research experience in investing and trading.

Tax Tips for Early Retirees

No matter how you got here, congratulations, you’ve decided to take early retirement. Setting yourself up to live life as you see fit is one of the American Dreams.

A serious problem with retiring early (besides figuring out what to do with all that time) is that when you stop working before age 60, the IRS doesn’t necessarily see you as a retiree. That’s why you need to be tax smart about managing your retirement accounts. Here are some things to think about….

Should I Roll Over My 401(k)?

Yes. Rolling over your 401(k) almost always makes sense because why would you want your former employer overseeing your account? Taking control of that money will allow you to have a whole world ful of investment options. Your plan probably has at most 20 mutual funds to pick from. A rollover IRA will give you thousands of choices.

If you want some of that money immediately and you’re over age 55 (but younger than 59 1/2) take the money out first and then roll over the rest of the account. Thanks to a convenient penalty exception for those who quit or retire between those ages, you can take payouts from company-sponsored qualified retirement plan accounts and dodge a 10% early withdrawal penalty. The amount will be taxed, but at least there is no penalty.

When Not to Roll Over: Company Stock

A rollover may not be the best option when your qualified retirement-plan account contains low-cost stock from your former company. If the current market value of the company shares is high in relation to their cost, you should strongly consider withdrawing the shares now and paying the resulting taxes.

THis will result in your tax bill being based on the (low) cost of the shares, rather than their (high) market value. If you’re under age 55, you’ll still owe the 10% penalty. Since the cost of the stock is low, the tax hit will probably be manageable even after the penalty. What’s the purpose of this strategy? You are positioned to pay only the 20% capital-gains tax on the difference between the cost of your company shares and the selling price.

Here’s of how cashing in your company stock could benefit you:

You bail out of your job at age of 52. Your company 401(k) account is worth $500,000. Of that, $200,000 is invested in company shares with a cost of $25,000. By following the advice, you’ll roll over $300,000 tax-free into your IRA. Now withdraw the company stock and put the shares into a taxable account. You’ll owe income taxes on $25,000, which is the cost of the stock. You’ll also owe a 10% penalty (because you’re not age 55 or older) on the $25,000. That makes the total tax hit including the penalty be 41% or $10,250 (.41 x $25,000).

The good news is your company stock is now considered a capital asset. This means that if you sell the stock for $200,000, you’ll only owe the 20% capital-gains tax on your $175,000 profit. After tax and penalty you will have netted $165,000. In contrast, if you roll the shares over into your IRA, your profit will be taxed at regular rates when you start taking IRA withdrawals.

If you hang onto the shares for over a year as they appreciate, things will be even better for you as any additional profit will also qualify for the 20% capital-gains rate.

Cautionary note here: To be eligible for the favorable tax treatment, your company stock must be received as part of a lump-sum distribution from the qualified retirement plan or plans in which you participate. Check with your employee-benefits department to make sure your retirement-plan payout qualifies as a lump-sum distribution.

Tapping your IRA

Unlike a company-sponsored plan, IRAs for people between the ages of 55 and 59 1/2 receive no special treatment.. So if you tap your IRA before official retirement age, you will get hit with the 10% early withdrawal penalty. There are some penalty exemptions listed here:

* Annuity-like withdrawals taken over your life expectancy. The withdrawals must be taken at least annually for a minimum of five years or until you turn 59 1/2, whichever is later.

* Withdrawals to pay qualified higher-education expenses for you or your children.

* Withdrawals to pay deductible medical expenses in excess of 7.5% of your adjusted gross income.

* Withdrawals to pay for a qualified home purchase (there’s a $10,000 lifetime limit on this exception).

* Withdrawals after death or disability.

Tapping Your Roth

Earnings in your Roth IRAs earnings can be withdrawn totally tax-free only if: (1) the account has been open at least five years, and (2) you are at age 59 1/2, or will use the money for one of the excepted purposes listed above. If you don’t pass both parts of the test, the earnings are taxed when withdrawn.

For withdrawals before age 59 1/2, you’ll also owe the 10% penalty on those withdrawn earnings unless you meet one of the penalty exceptions listed above. That penalty will also apply if you withdraw “conversion contributions” within five years of the conversion. Conversion contributions are those you made by converting a traditional IRA into a Roth.

On the other hand, you can generally withdraw Roth contributions tax-free and penalty-free. You shouldn’t do it, though, because taking withdrawals mean you’ll have that much less to continue investing on a tax-free basis. Also, if you need the money so badly that you tap your original contribution, you probably ought to keep working.

Roger Sorensen

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9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!

The following are a list of nine things you want to avoid at all costs. Anyone of them can literally destroy your financial dreams and goals!

1. Trading with money you can’t afford to lose.

One of the greatest obstacles to successful trading is using money that you really can’t afford to lose. Examples of this would be money that is supposed to be used to pay the mortgage, bills or your child’s college tuition. This is sometimes referred to as “trading with scared money” and there is a very good reason for that. Ultimately what happens is that when someone knows in the back of their mind that they are risking the rent money, they trade out of fear and emotion versus logic and no emotion.

If you are in this situation I highly recommend that you stop trading until you earn enough to put into an account that you truly can afford to lose without causing major financial setbacks. You can start with as little as $2000 and trade stocks under $30.

2. The need to be “certain”.

We all have the need to make sure that the trade we want to make is going to be a good one. Therefore we look for signs that will give us a confirmation to enter. This can come in several forms, for example… Tuning into CNBC or the Wall Street Journal to give us news that our stock is on the move or waiting for a couple of extra days to make sure that the stock is really flying and just not on a false breakout. Other traders will get opinions from friends, family or broker. Others will wait for ten technical indicators to line up and give the “green light”.

All of these are okay to a point, however the big mistake to avoid is taking so much time that you let the trade take off without you. Interestingly, what ends up happening as a result of waiting too long is that you actually increase your risk. This is because as a stock moves higher and higher there are fewer buyers left in the market and it can come tumbling down until more buyers step in. It is like a game of musical chairs; eventually someone gets caught without a chair.

Traders who wait and wait and wait to make extra sure are usually the ones buying the top tick just before the stocks sells off. They then beat themselves up thinking they picked the wrong stock. Odds are it had nothing to do with their selection, just bad timing.

The thing to keep in mind is that there can be no absolute certainty in any given trade. All we ever can do is take a very educated risk along with a leap of faith!

3. Spending profits before you make them.

Nothing is more exciting then getting into a trade that blasts off and puts you into a highly profitable situation. This can cause major problems however, because this type of trade puts you in a highly euphoric state and leads to daydreaming about the huge profits still to come. You say “Wow I’m already up 15% in two days; I’ll be up 50% in a week and probably double my money in no time!” Then the next thing that happens is you are deciding on the great new car you are going to buy or perhaps telling your boss that he can stick it… Well you get the idea!

The real problem occurs as you get caught up in the daydream and expectations. This causes you to not be prepared to get out as the market sells off and eats up your profits because you have convinced yourself of the eventual outcome and will deny the reality of the situation.

The simple remedy for this is to know where and how you will take profits once you enter the trade. Also, realize that the market will only go up as long as it wants and not how high you think it should go.

4. Forming an opinion.

I’m here to tell you that the market does not give a damn about you or your opinions. Even if they are based on painstaking research or from a “Wall Street Guru”, it doesn’t matter!

Maybe your opinion on market direction for the long term is correct, but it doesn’t mean that in the short term things can’t move against you. Remember that there are tens of thousands of traders out there who also have an opinion. It is all these different opinions that can cause great fluctuations in price on any given day or week regardless of your outlook

5. Three 4-letter words that will kill you! HOPE—WISH—PRAY

If you ever find yourself doing one or more of the above while in a trade then you are in big trouble! As I have already said, the market doesn’t give a damn. All the hoping, wishing and praying in the world is not going to turn a losing trade into a winning one.

When you are wrong just use a simple 4-letter word to correct the situation-SELL!

6. Not sticking to your plan

A big source of trouble arises when a trader starts to deviate from their strategy. Maybe for a week they will trade according to one set of rules and the next use something entirely different.

This flying by the seat of the pants always ends up backfiring. This is because the trader can never be certain what is working and what is not.

You must never deviate from your methodology once you start. As long as it is a good one statistically there is absolutely no reason to change it. The way to make money from it is to trade it over and over again to exploit the edge it gives you.

One thing to also be aware of is that a trader is most vulnerable to switching approaches after a few loses. So, pay special attention at these times.

7. Not knowing how to get out of a losing trade.

It’s amazing how many people I have talked to who don’t have any clear escape plan for getting out of a bad trade. Once again they hope, pray wish and rationalize their position. As I keep saying the market does not care what you think. It does what it does and when you are wrong you are wrong!

The easiest way to keep a bad trade from going really bad is to determine before you get in, where you will get out. You can use a dollar amount or at some target point such as the low of the previous 15-minute bar.

***Make sure you don’t get the “stunned deer in the headlights syndrome”. This is where you see the stock fall to your stop loss point, but you are unable to take action. Maybe this is due to fear or disbelief that you are wrong, but unless you get out ASAP you could end up I major financial trouble!

8. Having an ego.

I have seen a number of individuals enter the trading game that were extremely successful in other business ventures. Because of this they had a fairly big ego and thought they couldn’t fail. Their egos became their downfall because they couldn’t except that they were wrong and refused to bail out of bad trades.

Once again, whoever or wherever you came from does not concern the markets. All the charm, powers of persuasion, number of diplomas on the wall or business savvy will not budge the market when you are wrong.

9. Falling in love with a stock or trade.

Let me give you an example of what I mean. Back in the spring of 1999 EFAX was a really hot stock. I waited to buy it on a dip and did so at $19/share. It started to move up strongly and life was great!

After a while though, it started to come back to my entry point and then below it. Here’s the problem. For some reason I really liked EFAX and sort of became attached to it. Ultimately I couldn’t let go of it even though I knew I should. I justified and rationalized why my dear friend should bounce back, but it never did. I finally had to break off my love affair when the stock hit $9. (Ouch!)

The moral of this story is never fall in love, let alone get married to any stock. It can cost you dearly!

I can’t emphasize enough the importance of the principles in this article. Whether you are a position trader, swing trader or day trader, these principles can help you avoid some costly and painful financial mistakes. As they say, smart people learn from their mistakes and brilliant people learn from the mistakes of others.

This article is courtesy of Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 15 years of experience in all major markets. He is a trading coach to over 1400 traders in 38 countries.
For additional info: http://www.win-at-trading.com

Penny Stock Investing Guide 101

Penny stocks are also known small caps, micro caps and nano caps. Penny stocks are low-priced issues that are often highly speculative. Usually a penny stock sells for less than one dollar and is highly volatile.

Penny stock trading has its pros and cons. While the benefit is accruing of incredible profit minimum time period, the disadvantage is huge loss due to timely and often unwanted and unexpected fluctuation in the market. Therefore prior to investing in penny stocks there are quite a few things that a trader should bear in mind.

• To begin with the trader should at first examine the share structure and distribution of the shares of a particular stock. Doing this will help you in striking from your list of potential stocks any that indicate a highly disproportionate number of shares held in a single offshore account. For instance if you find millions of shares being held for less than a penny in a single offshore account, you can assure yourself that the moment you invest in the stock, heavy selling will result. Also the moment the stock prices begin to rise, buyers will not show any inclination towards purchasing and your shares will be rendered good for nothing. So it is preferable that you opt a stock where distribution points to a large number of holders.

• A trader should always verify the status or legitimacy of the company. The best way to do it is to contact the company. Most companies list their main contact numbers. Don’t hesitate in calling up the company. Since it is quite possible that a false line is being arranged for it, you should also contact the local operator and find business listings for the officers of the company. In case there are no listed numbers or local numbers to contact the company, drop the idea of that company completely. This is because there is a great threat of fraudulent companies hungry for your investment money. Also if the CEO attends your phone call or the number is residential, means that company is sham.

• When a particular stock is in your mind, before making a move further, take a look at the latest and long-term history of the stock and the company. If the company’s history is composed of reverse splits and reverse mergers, its future is quite precarious. Find a company that has a long and successful history. A company with a long time line can be considered to provide you fruitful returns.

• Before investing any amount, take a look at your bankroll. Bankroll refers to the amount of money you can afford to spend and lose. Since these investments are a risky affair, it is better that pertaining to your bankroll; you calculate a certain sum, losing which, will not trouble you much. Only if you can bear a big loss without hassles, go for higher risk or gain investments, otherwise don’t.

• Since the penny stock companies often do not have definitive revenue systems, measurable inventory levels, reliable quarterly financials or even a definitive product, the worth of most penny stocks can be skillfully assessed. As the stocks of these companies move on speculation, the investor should use alternative research strategies to know which stock will provide great potential in future and has high degree of accuracy.